There are currently over 60,000 people on the waitlist for social housing in Victoria.
It’s a figure that already far outstrips the supply, but experts predict demand for social housing will soon explode under the state government’s plan to gradually demolish and replace Victoria’s 44 existing public housing towers and additional walk-up buildings with new community housing estates by 2051.
Leading the conversation is design and research practice OFFICE, who believe the prioritisation of new community housing buildings — over the renovation and expansion of existing public housing — will increase homelessness in Victoria and be costlier to the taxpayer.
This is the basis of their ‘Retain Repair Reinvest’ strategy developed by the registered charity on a pro bono basis.
OFFICE has hypothetically applied this strategy to three public housing buildings to date: Barak Beacon Estate in Port Melbourne (since demolished and undergoing redevelopment); Ascot Vale Estate; and most recently the Flemington Estate, due to be demolished this year.
The latter feasibility study alone, released in October 2024, argues the Flemington Estate could be sufficiently updated, and expanded with infill housing, for about $300 million less than the cost of demolishing and entirely replacing the existing buildings.
OFFICE directors Simon Robinson and Steve Mintern are the first to admit that most of Victoria’s existing public housing buildings are currently not fit for purpose. The 1960s towers are rundown, cold in winter, and sweltering in summer, but OFFICE believes they could be comfortable and energy efficient with the appropriate renovations.
At a time where homelessness is rising (up 14 per cent in Victoria between 2020-21 and 2022-23, according to a Council to Homeless Persons report), experts say investing in public housing — rather than transitioning to a predominantly community housing model — is critical.
Both styles of development fall under the banner of social housing, but public housing is operated by the state government and has lower rents capped at 25 per cent of a tenant’s income.
‘Public housing rents are also indefinite leases, and the allocation is for priority waitlist housing applicants,’ explains Simon Robinson, architect and director of OFFICE.
‘Community housing is run by housing associations [that are] not-for-profit organisations. Generally, the rent is capped at 30 per cent of the tenant’s income, and they only have to take a percentage of the high priority waitlist, so they can be more selective of who gets access to the housing.
‘You can be more easily evicted from those arrangements, as well.’